Top 10 Countries Showing Mojo Toward COVID-19

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 Top 10 Countries Showing Mojo Toward COVID-19

I will only be considering countries that have large populations and significant arrivals from outside the country. Island nations are discounted. If stopping the spread is correct, then how does one explain the following countries? All had early high case counts (and deaths per capita). Then, in a second wave of high case counts, they have low daily death rates per capita. This shows their mojo, but why? Are they becoming less susceptible? I consider only countries with high case counts >2,700 cases per million because that seems to have lowered their susceptibility. All of the numbers are from Wikipedia, realclearpolitics.com and ourworldindata.org. I don’t agree with the political systems in some of these countries. 

  1. Singapore - over 9,900 confirmed cases per million but zero new deaths per million each day since July 28. They had a national lockdown from April 7th until June 1st. Their approach was consistent with their very strict culture. It might not work everywhere.
  2. Ireland - over 5,600 confirmed cases per million but the new bi-weekly death rate is 12. With a population of 4.9 million, that’s 0.17 deaths per million per day. They had a national lockdown during wave 1 until May 18th and a regional one in selected counties in August.
  3. Sweden - over 8,400 confirmed cases per million but the new bi-weekly death rate is 42. With a population of 10.3 million, that’s 0.29 deaths per million per day. Every day, 24 people per million die in Sweden of all causes. No lockdown. They exhibited tremendous mojo bucking much criticism.
  4. Belarus - over 7,300 confirmed cases per million but the new bi-weekly death rate is 45. With a population of 9.4 million, that’s 0.34 deaths per million per day. No lockdown. Quarantine was the approach taken.
  5. United Arab Emirates - over 6,800 confirmed cases per million but the new bi-weekly death rate is 14. With a population of 9.9 million, that’s 0.1 deaths per million per day.
  6. Portugal - over 5,300 confirmed cases per million but he new bi-weekly death rate is 46. With a population of 10.3 million, that’s 0.32 deaths per million per day. They had a national lockdown during wave 1 until May 2nd.
  7. Italy - over 4,200 confirmed cases per million but the new bi-weekly death rate is 231. With a population of 18.8 million, that’s 0.88 deaths per million per day. They had a national lockdown during wave 1 until May 18th.
  8. Switzerland - over 4,500 confirmed cases per million but the new bi-weekly death rate is 13. With a population of 8.6 million, that’s 0.1 deaths per million per day. No official lockdown, but many mitigation measures enacted. Although they haven’t experienced a huge number of cases, their death rate is tiny.
  9. Netherlands - over 3,700 confirmed cases per million but the new bi-weekly death rate is 27. With a population of 17.5 million, that’s 0.11 deaths per million per day. No official lockdown, but many mitigation measures enacted.
  10. Austria over 2,700 confirmed cases per million but the new bi-weekly death rate is 10. With a population of 8.9 million, that’s 0.08 deaths per million per day. They had a national lockdown during wave 1 until April 13th.
The numbers indicate that none of these countries have stopped the spread, even if they tried. Some imposed national lockdowns. Some didn’t. Regardless, the low level of new deaths indicate that they have gotten some lower susceptibility from the spread. Granted, deaths lag cases. Some estimate the lag is up to 5 weeks. There is some indication of the lowered susceptibility now, but it might take a few more weeks for confirmation to occur. In any event, these are the countries that I bet are most likely to continue to have low deaths.

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